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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past remote Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains following the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a armed reaction from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.